obama, treasury & where's the bottom?

three things on my mind tonight and no doubt others are having similar thoughts lately:

1. Obama's speech to Congress last night - while officially registered as an Independent, I've actually voted Republican my entire life, at least until last fall when I anxiously and proudly submitted my vote for Barack Husein Obama.  This was primarily due to two main factors: a) the disastrous 8 years of Bush (with a Republican-controlled Congress for 6 of those 8 years) that saw us launch two foreign wars, extend a medicare drug benefit, all while cutting taxes and preaching the values of deregulation, the results of which was our national debt doubling from $5B+ to over $10B and an economic recession that certainly could turn into a depression at any time....and b) BHO leading a fresh and unique campaign of "change" that saw many people (many of whom had never participated in politics before) contribute small amounts of money and devote their time and energy to local campaign canvassing, etc.  While I certainly don't believe BHO is the "messiah" or anywhere near a faultless President, I do see someone who is very calm & steady, thoughtful, deliberate, engaging and inspirational.....and IMHO, this was no more evident than in his speech to Congress last night.  I thought the content and delivery were exceptional, especially for a President who has only been in the White House for just over 30 days.  And from the reviews that poured in today, there are many who strongly agree with me....and their names aren't Hannity & Limbaugh!    
   
2. The Fed/Treasury/et. al Capital Assessment Program details were finally released today, and many were disappointed that the "worst case" downside scenario (10.3% unemployment, GDP down 3.3% in 2009, etc.) wasn't nearly as bad as some forecasters are predicting.  Despite increasing calls for nationalization of the banks, the CAP will open up the Treasury's coffers for additional bank capital investment, in the form of preferred stock with a 9% dividend.  While many banks are certainly being saved from the brink of disaster with the government's help, this is far from the bail-out gift that many think it is.  This country cannot afford to let our biggest banks (yes, many are now "too big to fail") collapse due to the systematic risk that this would cause throughout the entire financial system.  And who wouldn't want to earn a nice 9% dividend on their investments?  
3. So how bad can it get?  Businesses aren't hiring (most, in fact, are laying off employees); household wealth has been absolutely destroyed through home equity erosion and the stock market collapse; consumers aren't spending any money (especially on any discretionary items); consumer and business confidence polls are at multi-decade lows.....and really where we go from here, nobody knows...by any number of measurements (gdp, unemployment, confidence polls), the economy is truly as bad as it's been since the Great Depression (haven't heard that reference in the media lately, have you?) and likely to get much worse.  While I would never attempt to call a "bottom", I do think we'll see a 10%+ unemployment rate by early 2010, along with continued home equity erosion and more losses in the stock market.  To me, the bigger and more important question than "where's the bottom", is are we facing a potential "lost decade" (see Japan in the 90's)?  While scary to think about, more and more economists/prognosticators are starting to believe this is a real, distinct possibility.....so we all need to start thinking how we'll adapt if such a situation were to become reality.   Now is the time to think clearly about what's most important to you and your family and start (or continue) building a life around these core values and interests.   Please read this article (and many others like it by Alexander Green) for some help on the tough questions and for some additional perspective on what really matters in life.  Best of luck and please let me know if I can help.  Carpe Diem!